On February 28, 2026, at 1:15 in the morning Eastern time, coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military installations changed the course of global aviation almost overnight. Within hours, eight countries had closed their airspace simultaneously. By sunrise, over 1,800 flights had been cancelled according to aviation data firm Cirium. By March 11, that number had climbed past 46,000.

This is the most significant disruption to commercial aviation since COVID-19 shut down global travel in March 2020. The difference this time is that the disruption arrived in a single night, without warning, and is concentrated across one of the most heavily trafficked aviation corridors on the planet.

What Actually Happened in the Skies

Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE all issued NOTAMs (Notices to Air Missions) closing or severely restricting their airspace within hours of the first strikes. At peak closure, roughly 24% of all scheduled Middle East flights on February 28 were cancelled, with Qatar and Israel each seeing cancellation rates near 50%.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency responded immediately with Conflict Zone Information Bulletin CZIB 2026-03-R4, warning operators to avoid all altitudes across a zone spanning Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the UAE, and parts of Saudi Arabia. In unusually direct language, EASA stated there is a "high risk to civil aviation" in the affected airspace due to "spill-over risks, misidentification, miscalculation and failure of interception procedures."

That language carries specific weight for anyone who remembers January 8, 2020, when Iranian surface-to-air missiles shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. Iran's military had been on high alert following strikes on US bases that same night. No NOTAM was issued to warn civilian aircraft. The ICAO final report on PS752 became the defining reference for why conflict zone transparency standards matter in aviation.

Which Airlines Suspended Flights and When

The scale of the airline response is without precedent for a conflict zone event. British Airways extended its suspension of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Amman, and Bahrain routes through May 31, 2026. Lufthansa Group, including SWISS and Austrian Airlines, suspended multiple destinations through April 30. Finnair halted its Doha service until at least June 30. Qatar Airways sent nine widebody aircraft, including A350s and an A380, to storage at Teruel Airport in Spain starting March 18.

Among the Gulf carriers, Emirates recovered the fastest, reaching approximately 60% of normal capacity by March 12 and 90% by March 18. Etihad was operating at roughly 50% of its pre-war schedule by late March. Qatar Airways, the most severely impacted, was running only about 20% of normal, per Aviation Week.

Simple Flying compiled a full picture of how airlines are now routing. Air India, Japanese carriers, and Asian airlines are avoiding Iranian, Iraqi, and Israeli airspace entirely, adding between 45 minutes and two hours to flights that previously passed over the Gulf.

The Real Cost of Flying Around

Every hour a commercial aircraft spends in the air costs an operator somewhere between $6,000 and $7,500, according to Simple Flying. For Gulf carriers that once used Iranian airspace as a shortcut on routes between the Middle East and Europe or Asia, that cost now compounds on every single flight.

The ripple effects on fares have been severe. Asia to Europe ticket prices surged by as much as 560% in March 2026, according to Bloomberg. Jet fuel, trading between $85 and $90 per barrel before the conflict, spiked to between $150 and $200 per barrel in the weeks that followed. Industry analysts now forecast that average fares will remain 5 to 10% above pre-conflict expectations through 2026 and 2027, per CNBC.

The World Travel and Tourism Council put the daily cost to the global travel economy at $600 million per day in lost international visitor spending, against an industry valued at $11.7 trillion globally.

More Than a Million People Stranded

The human picture behind the numbers is striking. CNBC reported over a million travellers stranded globally in the immediate aftermath. More than 58,000 Indonesian pilgrims were stuck in Saudi Arabia mid-Umrah. Over 102,000 British nationals registered with the UK government for consular assistance. Around 30,000 German tourists were stranded on cruise ships or in hotels across the region.

Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research Group, described the scale to Fortune in terms that land hard: "We have not seen anything like this ever outside of, frankly, the COVID pandemic. This is obviously a war, a military conflict, and this has destabilized travel on the six populated continents of the earth."

Aviation security advisor Eric Schouten of Dyami told Al Jazeera plainly: "Passengers and airlines can expect airspace to be shut for quite some time in the region."

How Airlines Are Rerouting

Two main bypass corridors have emerged. The southern route runs through Egypt, across western and southern Saudi Arabian airspace, then through or near Oman before continuing toward Asia or Africa. Saudi Arabia's western corridors have remained open throughout the conflict, which is why Riyadh has become the most important operational hub in the region.

The northern bypass runs via Turkey, then through Armenia and Azerbaijan, across the Caspian Sea, and onward through Central Asian airspace. Armenian airspace has seen a significant surge in rerouted traffic as a result. For a full breakdown of which airports are operating and which routes offer the most reliable options right now, see our companion guide on the safest routes in the Middle East.

What to Do If You Have a Booking

If you have a flight scheduled through any Gulf hub in the coming months, there are several practical steps worth taking now. First, check whether your ticket is refundable or changeable. Airlines are treating many cancellations as extraordinary circumstances, which limits your right to compensation under standard passenger protection rules. Euronews has a clear breakdown of your passenger rights specific to this situation.

Second, monitor the situation daily. Airports that were open last week have closed with no warning, and airports listed as closed have partially reopened. The OPSGROUP real-time airspace picture and the Safe Airspace conflict zone database are the most reliable public resources for current status.

Third, avoid restricted or basic economy fares for any travel touching this region for the foreseeable future. The situation is fluid enough that flexible ticketing is worth the premium.